Source: World
Banks
The
most recent economic recession began in 2007. That has led to many problems in
the United States, such as the increases of the unemployment rate. Have you
ever wondered what happened to the birth rate during the recession? After
research, I found that the economic downturn in 2007 lead to a lower birthrate
within the United States in an effort by adults to save money. My question is what
is the instantaneous rate of change in the birth rate in the year 2008?
|
Year
|
US Birth Rates
|
|
2007
|
2.12
|
|
2008
|
2.08
|
|
2009
|
2.00
|
|
2010
|
1.93
|
|
2011
|
1.89
|
|
2012
|
1.88
|
Average Rate of Change
(2007,2.12)
to (2008, 2.08)
(2.08-2.12)/(2008-2007)= -0.04
(2008,
2.08) to (2009, 2.00)
(2.00-2.08)/(2009-2010)= -0.08
(2009,
2.00) to (2010, 1.89)
(1.89-2.00)/(2010-2009)= -0.11
We
calculate the Average rate of Change by using the slope formula. The calculations of the Average Rate of
Change show that they are all negative slopes, which means that the birth rate
decreases as the years increases.
Instantaneous
Rate of Change (IRC)
This
calculation of slope of the tangent line is by definition equal to the instantaneous
rate of change at point 2008. In terms of the experiment this is the rate at
which the birth rate is changing in the year 2008. In order to know the instantaneous
Rate of Change in the birth rate in the year 2008, I picked two points:
(2007,
2.12) to (2009, 2)
(2-2.12)/(2009-2007)=
-0.06
The
birth rate at 2008 is decreasing 0.06 birth per woman.
The introduction and background provided much needed context for this problem! I liked it. I wish you had gone more in-depth within the ARC section--I felt like you could've also written speculations about where the IRC could possibly fall. Furthermore, I think you should also include an explanation of what the values mean before explaining that the birth rate is decreasing every year. I felt like it was understood, but it doesn't hurt to be explicit. The graph containing the tangent line is a little hard to read, but, other than that? Everything looks fantastic. Great job. :" )
ReplyDeleteIt's amazing to see how the recent recession affected US birth rate until now! I like how we can figure out the change at a certain points, since real life situation are not always represent in a linear relationship.
ReplyDeleteHey Lindsey, I think this was a great project! It's crazy to see how much our economy have fallen and the points you picked out are interesting too.
ReplyDeletelindsey,
ReplyDeleteyou chose a really interesting and relevant topic. and i really like how you explained how looked at the correlation between birth rate and the recession. very thoughtful!
overall, a good post. your explanations are clear and most of your graphics are easy to read. i believe there is a little bit of an issue with your ROC calculations as you should have calculated 3 secant lines originating from the same point.the first two originate from 2008, but the last one doesn't have 2008 as one of the points, which changes the results a little bit.
also, just to clarify, the units would be births per year, not birth per woman.
other than that, good job!
prof little